Hello everyone, it's Proilios again, and I'm back with my predictions for Week 9 of the Overwatch League. It's been rough for the OWL community after hearing that there will be no more Homestands this season, but I think this is the right decision, since nobody can predict where the world will be with COVID in the short run. That said, we will still be getting matches in an online format, meaning we won't miss out on any of the action, and who knows? Maybe the League and the teams will save more money by playing online this year and have more to invest in 2021 to give us an even better live experience.
Anyway, the schedule for Week 9 is out, and as usual, I want to speculate on the meta before I share my predictions with you all.
2. Philadelphia Fusion vs. Washington Justice- Fusion wins 3-0. This is it guys. I think this is the match in which ChipSa will debut. With no McCree and no Brigitte, the meta is pretty well-shaped for Doomfist to take centre stage, as we saw on Day 1. However, Sombra is still in the mix, so if the enemy team has a good Sombra player (which the Justice don't), he will have trouble getting much work done. In this particular meta, which favours Doom-Reaper, I think ChipSa-Heesu will be a fantastic DPS duo to field. Heesu was a fantastic Reaper during the Double Barrier meta with Runaway, so I'm sure he'll do a great job in his debut. On the Justice's side, well, they didn't look very adaptable against the Defiant, and I'm darn sure they won't be able to beat the Fusion with the level of play they've showcased so far. A perfect prediction. Philly is showing no signs of slowing down, and after another strong showing, they made Washington "sit".
3. Dallas Fuel vs. Los Angeles Valiant- Valiant wins 3-1. Despite their loss against the Shock, I think the Valiant look pretty good in this new meta. They've got solid players on every role, and are well-equipped to deal with Dallas, who have been facing some problems on the tank front. I think the Fuel have got a better DPS lineup for this meta, but the Valiant have got way better tanks, which is why I see them taking the win this time. They did it! After a massive losing streak going back to Stage 3 of Season 2, Dallas bagged their first win of 2020, after a carry-level performance by Decay on Tracer, backed up by an amazing Doomfist from Doha. The final score was 3-2.
4. Chengdu Hunters vs. Shanghai Dragons- Dragons win 3-2. This was a tough one to call. The Dragons have showcased some really clean play so far, but they've also been more inconsistent than the Hunters, who more or less seem to be on the same page all the time. That said, I think Shanghai looked really formidable against the Spark, and if they keep the momentum up, they can take this win. The Hunters also looked fairly good against the Charge, but got outclassed in a ping-pong point contest fiasco which they tried to go for on Map 5. Also, they don't really have any curveballs to throw at the Dragons, now that Ameng's Wrecking Ball is out of the picture. Therefore, I expect this to be a very close matchup with Shanghai taking the win. Chengdu was fairly disappointing in this match. Not only did they look utterly confused during totally winnable team fights, but also made surprising blunders that caused them to lose in very favourable scenarios. The Dragons capitalised on their opponents' confusion, and won 3-1.
5. Guangzhou Charge vs. Hangzhou Spark- Charge wins 3-1. I don't think I'll have to do much convincing for this one. The Charge have really lived up to our expectations so far; they don't choke, they don't make crazy mistakes, and they're certainly very good at this meta. Nero, on Day 1, played an insane Reaper, a hero he's not known for, and along with Eileen's Sombra and Rio's amazing Reinhardt, they set up some brilliant plays, which I'm sure they can replicate against Hangzhou. The Spark didn't look super bad, but weren't clean at all, and I seriously doubt they can take this match. Chinese teams are really hard to judge, and this match proved my point. The Charge had a very strong performance against the Hunters just a day before this match, but still lost to the Spark, who looked very disappointing against the Shanghai Dragons a day earlier too. The Charge did play Hangzhou close, but only because they made a ton of errors. If they'd stayed on track and played with the same focus they did against Chengdu, they would've won this match easily. However, the match ended with a 3-2 win for the Spark.
Anyway, the schedule for Week 9 is out, and as usual, I want to speculate on the meta before I share my predictions with you all.
META SPECULATION
Wrecking Ball, Mei (YES), McCree and Brigitte are the banned heroes for Week 9, and that's a lot of CC out of the picture, which enables 2 compositions to rise to the top according to me. Now, these compositions are just speculative, and are by no means the only ones that I think will be viable, so don't take my opinions as gospel.
The first composition will be Dive, specifically Winston-D.Va-Tracer-Sombra-Ana-Lucio. Why am I naming this variation specifically? Well, Winston-D.Va is already a pretty solid tank pair, and can take space quite rapidly. Tracer is in a really strong position since McCree and Brig, who are two of her hardest counters, are out of the picture. Sombra is, well, Sombra. Her Hacks are super-valuable, she has horizontal as well as vertical mobility, and she's just better at taking care of herself than most other DPSes in the game. Ana is the main healer of choice, since she provides a ton of utility, and her Nanoboost pairs really well with a diving Winston. Lucio goes well with her since he can peel for her, and isn't very diveable himself, and also because Sound Barrier is a great defensive ultimate. In recent times we've seen the pros play Zen-Brig with Dive, but since there's no more Brigitte to guard the Zenyatta, as part of her role has been, I don't think he'll see much playtime. Overall, this comp is great because it works towards a singular cause i.e. Hacking and Diving a singular target and taking them out, effectively setting yourself up for a 6v5 team fight, which is almost always a win. There is just one comp which I think could rival this one, simply based on map geometry and the players' comfort picks.
This comp is the classic Double Barrier, i.e. Orisa-Sigma-Reaper-Doomfist-Moira-Lucio. There are many reasons why this comp can rival the Dive comp I mentioned. Firstly, it works like a Deathball, and isn't very diveable, especially because of Reaper, who can melt Winston and D.Va if they get too close. They've also got Doomfist, who does get countered by Tracer and Sombra, but can still get value if he stays close to his team and plays defensively. Moira and Lucio are both very difficult to Dive, especially when they're with their tanks, who have pretty good defensive abilities themselves. Orisa's Fortify can help her survive the sustained damage dished out by Dive heroes, and Sigma also has Accretion to shut down flankers and get picks for his team. Also, without Zen to Discord Orisa and Sigma, they just have an upper hand when it comes to sustain. That said, yes, this comp is counterable, especially if the Dive comp draws out aggression from them and gets a Hack onto Doomfist, but there is counterplay involved on both sides, which is why I think their matchup is very skill and communication-dependent. Also, not all maps favour Dive or Double Barrier, which means their use is situational.
This should be a pretty interesting meta to watch, and I'm really looking forward to it. I hope I've got the comps right; I did partly guess them correctly last week (you can find my older prediction posts by searching by the 'Match Predictions' tag on my homepage). All that said, let's get started! Just keep in mind that this article will act like a thread i.e. I will update it one day at a time, sharing predictions for Day 2 after I've witnessed Day 1, so do revisit this page every day till Monday!
DAY 1
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| I'm sorry rOar, but you've gotta play the horse once again |
1. Toronto Defiant vs. Washington Justice- Justice wins 3-1. I can totally see the Justice opting into Double Barrier this week. Corey-Stratus can make a fantastic Reaper-Doomfist duo, especially with the kind of synergy they have, and that itself could be enough to get them the win. If that doesn't work, maybe they go for a Tracer-Genji Dive, but I don't think it'll come to that unless the map is quite terrible for Double Barrier. On the other hand, I think the Defiant have got the skill and firepower to go for either of the two comps I mentioned. They have a great Tracer-Sombra duo in Logix-Surefour, and a great Reaper-Doomfist duo in Surefour-Agilities. The part where I'm not convinced is their inconsistency, which is actually the main reason I think they'll lose this match. When you've got two teams of similar skill, and one is noticeably less consistent than the other, you've got to lean towards their opponent taking the win. It turns out that the meta for the week is Rein-D.Va-Reaper-Doomfist/Torb-Moira-Lucio. Torb is meta guys, what a time to be alive! As someone who plays a ton of this hero, I am ecstatic to see him get this kind of screen time! On the downside though, that means my predictions are a little bit off, since I wasn't entirely right about the meta. I mean, forget Dive, they're not even playing Double Barrier. They're basically playing the DPS and supports I mentioned in my second comp, but with Rein-D.Va as their tanks. It does make sense, since the pros are going for sustainable comps more than anything, but it did also mean that the Defiant took the win. The Justice weren't able to match Agilities' Doomfist well enough with Torb, and they ended up losing 1-3.
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| Can we see Birdring get back to his deadly self on Tracer? |
2. Los Angeles Gladiators vs. Dallas Fuel- Gladiators win 3-1. A pretty versatile team, the Gladiators should be comfortable running both: Dive, as well as Double Barrier into the Fuel. They can run a successful Tracer-Sombra Dive with Birdring-Jaru on those heroes, or even Double Barrier with Birdring-MirroR/Jaru on Reaper-Doomfist. I think they'd do better at Dive though, especially with OGE's stellar Winston at the helm. On the Fuel's side, I think they'd better stick to Dive; let NotE play D.Va as much as possible, because he's not very good at Sigma. With Gamsu on Winston and NotE on D.Va, I think Dallas can play a good Tracer-Sombra Dive, since you need to look no farther than Decay-Doha for your DPS duo as usual. That said, I have more confidence in the Gladiators because they just seem like a better team and have got more versatility in their roster, which is why I think they'll take the win. The Gladiators took the win 3-0. The match wasn't as one-sided as the score reflects, but the Fuel were still noticeably behind in terms of skill. I think Decay and Doha were still the best part of Dallas' lineup, as they did full justice on Reaper and Doomfist respectively, but their tank line couldn't match the Gladiators', because of whom they lost about a decent amount of team fights.
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| If the Shock find some stability, they can 'reap' the benefits of their efforts |
3. Los Angeles Valiant vs. San Francisco Shock- Valiant wins 3-2. This was a tough match to predict. On one hand, the Valiant played quite well last week, but the Shock weren't that far behind either. Composition-wise, I think both teams are evenly-matched. The Valiant can run Tracer-Sombra Dive with KSP on Tracer, and Shax on Sombra. I don't really see the Valiant playing and excelling at Double Barrier, but maybe that's just because I haven't seen top-tier Doomfist play from their players yet. On the Shock's side, well, they've got one of the most versatile rosters in the League. Sign them up for Dive, and they can go with smurf-ChoiHyoBin on Winston-D.Va, Striker-sinatraa on Tracer-Sombra, and please God, Viol2t-moth on Ana-Lucio; the best part is that they can run the same lineup even for Double Barrier, with Striker on Reaper and sinatraa on Doomfist. However, I'm going to hold off on upselling the Shock right now; I did it twice last week and got disappointing results both times, which is why I'm going with the Valiant for this matchup. The Shock took the win 3-1 after a taxing Week 8. They were just better than the Valiant, as they were more clinical in their approach, and had super doing a ton of work on the Rein, buying his team a ton of space and landing some fat shatters.
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| The Spark have got to break out those barriers once again |
4. Shanghai Dragons vs. Hangzhou Spark- Spark wins 3-2. In this meta, I expect Spark to bring out the Double Barrier comp as much as they can. They did quite well with it during the Playoffs last year, and have an incredible Reaper-Doomfist duo with GodsB-Bazzi. The reason I don't see them going for my variation of Dive, even though Guxue can finally play Winston, is that they don't have a great Sombra player on their team. If they opt to play Doomfist or Genji instead of her, yes, they can run Dive, so let's see what decision their coaches take. On the Dragons' side, I think their best shot is Dive with Tracer-Sombra. I can see diem playing Tracer and either LIP or DDing playing Sombra, with which they can really get some work done. I also look forward to seeing Fearless on Winston, since he's supposedly quite good on the hero. That said, I think the Dragons were quite inconsistent last week, because of which I believe the Spark have the upper hand in this matchup. Aaand the Chinese teams strike again, messing up my predictions once more. This time, the Shanghai Dragons, who looked a little too inconsistent last week, demolished the Hangzhou Spark 3-0. It wasn't that Shanghai looked clean all the time, but they just made fewer mistakes than the Spark. I do believe Hangzhou showed some signs of promise, especially Bazzi's Sombra, which I thought was very good, but ultimately, their playstyle just got countered by the Dragons. A team that's used to playing reactively, the Spark were backed into a corner by a team that seems to like being very proactive, which is one of the demands of an area-controlling Deathball comp like the one we saw both these teams run. Rein-D.Va-Reaper-Sombra-Moira-Lucio is not a comp you can play slow on; you have to get those hacks off quickly and rush the enemy team, which is exactly what the Dragons did.
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| The Charge will need to be very clinical to even stand a chance at beating the Hunters |
5. Chengdu Hunters vs. Guangzhou Charge- Hunters win 3-1. Even with Ameng's beloved Wrecking Ball banned, I think the Hunters have a good chance of taking this match. Ameng can still play Orisa, and combined with leave's amazing Doomfist and probably Baconjack's Reaper, I believe Chengdu can still be very competitive. Even if they go for Dive, they could run something like Tracer-Genji, a comp they've shown promise at, and see success. Naturally, ATing would have to step in on Winston in this case. On the Charge's end, I'm not sure which of the two comps they will end up running. I think they'll lean more into Dive, but not specifically the variant I described. Their best shot would probably be a Sombra-Genji Dive with Eileen-nero on those heroes, but they could also go for Double Barrier with Happy-Eileen on Reaper-Doomfist. I'm really not sure about this, but I think the Hunters can beat them either way, considering the curveballs they can throw and the pop-off potential they have on their team. Even though the Hunters ended up losing 2-3, I'm happy that they played a good amount of the Dive comp I've described in the beginning of the post (Winston-D.Va-Tracer-Sombra-Ana-Lucio). They had the right idea with the comp, but couldn't execute it well enough. We also saw Ameng's professional Winston debut, which was short-lived but entertaining, as he showed the same amount of aggression one would show on Wrecking Ball, and kept diving into the Charge's backline without caring about his health. Both he and ATing, who debuted in this match, kept getting outplayed by Rio, especially in the Rein v. Rein matchup. Overall, this was a pretty entertaining match; I think the Hunters have some wrinkles to iron out, but they still looked pretty good, all things considered.
1. Houston Outlaws vs. Paris Eternal- Eternal wins 3-2. I think this is going to be an incredibly close match. Looking at the comps run on Day 1, I think the Outlaws would be best off fielding Danteh-LiNkzr as their DPS line. I think with these two, you'd get the flexibility of running either Sombra-Tracer Dive, or even Doom-Reaper, since Danteh can play a pretty good Doomfist. There's the obvious argument that you're more likely to field either Hydration or blase on Doom, but that won't give you the flexibility of playing Sombra-Tracer, since neither of those players play those heroes. On the Eternal's side, I can see them playing SoOn-NiCOgdh for Tracer-Sombra, with the option of going Reaper-Torb if needed. I don't think any of Paris' active DPS players are top-tier Doomfists (feelsbad for Sp9rk1e), so they'd be better off running Torbjorn instead, which I'm sure NiCOgdh will be able to play to an acceptable level. Also, with the option to go Tracer-Sombra yourself, you'll be prepared to engage in a Dive mirror with the Outlaws, who can totally play to their strengths in this meta. Just overall, I think the Eternal will be able to execute this meta better than the Outlaws, which is why I'm touting them as the winners. The Paris Eternal took a 3-1 win in this match. Although Houston started off strong, with Muma playing out of his mind and landing massive Shatters, the team couldn't keep up the momentum, and lost to Paris' consistent play.DAY 2
2. Philadelphia Fusion vs. Washington Justice- Fusion wins 3-0. This is it guys. I think this is the match in which ChipSa will debut. With no McCree and no Brigitte, the meta is pretty well-shaped for Doomfist to take centre stage, as we saw on Day 1. However, Sombra is still in the mix, so if the enemy team has a good Sombra player (which the Justice don't), he will have trouble getting much work done. In this particular meta, which favours Doom-Reaper, I think ChipSa-Heesu will be a fantastic DPS duo to field. Heesu was a fantastic Reaper during the Double Barrier meta with Runaway, so I'm sure he'll do a great job in his debut. On the Justice's side, well, they didn't look very adaptable against the Defiant, and I'm darn sure they won't be able to beat the Fusion with the level of play they've showcased so far. A perfect prediction. Philly is showing no signs of slowing down, and after another strong showing, they made Washington "sit".
3. Dallas Fuel vs. Los Angeles Valiant- Valiant wins 3-1. Despite their loss against the Shock, I think the Valiant look pretty good in this new meta. They've got solid players on every role, and are well-equipped to deal with Dallas, who have been facing some problems on the tank front. I think the Fuel have got a better DPS lineup for this meta, but the Valiant have got way better tanks, which is why I see them taking the win this time. They did it! After a massive losing streak going back to Stage 3 of Season 2, Dallas bagged their first win of 2020, after a carry-level performance by Decay on Tracer, backed up by an amazing Doomfist from Doha. The final score was 3-2.
4. Chengdu Hunters vs. Shanghai Dragons- Dragons win 3-2. This was a tough one to call. The Dragons have showcased some really clean play so far, but they've also been more inconsistent than the Hunters, who more or less seem to be on the same page all the time. That said, I think Shanghai looked really formidable against the Spark, and if they keep the momentum up, they can take this win. The Hunters also looked fairly good against the Charge, but got outclassed in a ping-pong point contest fiasco which they tried to go for on Map 5. Also, they don't really have any curveballs to throw at the Dragons, now that Ameng's Wrecking Ball is out of the picture. Therefore, I expect this to be a very close matchup with Shanghai taking the win. Chengdu was fairly disappointing in this match. Not only did they look utterly confused during totally winnable team fights, but also made surprising blunders that caused them to lose in very favourable scenarios. The Dragons capitalised on their opponents' confusion, and won 3-1.
5. Guangzhou Charge vs. Hangzhou Spark- Charge wins 3-1. I don't think I'll have to do much convincing for this one. The Charge have really lived up to our expectations so far; they don't choke, they don't make crazy mistakes, and they're certainly very good at this meta. Nero, on Day 1, played an insane Reaper, a hero he's not known for, and along with Eileen's Sombra and Rio's amazing Reinhardt, they set up some brilliant plays, which I'm sure they can replicate against Hangzhou. The Spark didn't look super bad, but weren't clean at all, and I seriously doubt they can take this match. Chinese teams are really hard to judge, and this match proved my point. The Charge had a very strong performance against the Hunters just a day before this match, but still lost to the Spark, who looked very disappointing against the Shanghai Dragons a day earlier too. The Charge did play Hangzhou close, but only because they made a ton of errors. If they'd stayed on track and played with the same focus they did against Chengdu, they would've won this match easily. However, the match ended with a 3-2 win for the Spark.
This rather horrible week has ended with me getting just 4/10 (40%) winners and 1/10 (10%) scores correct. That's a drop compared to the week before. Hopefully, with every team finally having more than 2 matches of playtime, I'll be able to judge the outcomes of future matches better. The OverSeer won't stop with these predictions posts, so don't forget to subscribe to this blog and be notified whenever I post something new! Thanks a lot for the read, and I'll see you soon! Cheers.
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