The Overwatch League is heading back to Washington, D.C., for its fifth week in 2020, and I'm super excited, since Hero Pools will finally be debuting in the highest tier of competitive play. For those of you who don't know, starting on Saturday, 1 tank, 2 DPS, and 1 support will be banned from League play per week. The banned heroes for each week will be picked randomly from a pool of heroes that had a pickrate higher than 10% the week before. Because of this, no hero can be banned for two weeks in a row, and this will ensure diversity in the meta from week-to-week.
Usually, we jump straight into the predictions in these articles, but since Hero Pools will be added this weekend, I want to speculate a little on what the meta will be based on the banned heroes for the Washington Homestand, which are Reinhardt, Widowmaker, McCree and Moira. From what I can tell, Dive with Hackfist could be the flavour of the week. With Reinhardt out of the picture, it will be really hard for teams to get a lot of space and staying power, which means Deathball Comps won't be a thing at all. The next best thing on the latest patch seems to be mobility, which is the signature resource for any Dive Comp. I'm sure a lot of you have the question, "Why Hackfist specifically though?" and that's a pretty fair thing to ask. There's a slightly complex cycle behind this, which I will try to explain to the best of my ability.
Let's start off with Doomfist. He's still incredibly strong, mobile, and has one-shot potential. He can basically shut down enemy backlines with effective engages and combos, and sometimes even escape unscathed. To mitigate his threat a little, you get a Sombra, which is a great DPS to counter Doomfist when you don't have McCree. Now, not only does Sombra counter Doomfist but also synergises well with him. She can hack a squishy, and have Doomfist dive them and finish them off; it's possible, and sometimes even easy for the pros to do that with their level of coordination. Combine that with the vertical mobility she gets with her Translocator, and her kit in general, and she's a powerful Dive pick to have. Because of her presence, Wrecking Ball is instantly pseudo-banned, since it's very tough for him to get value against a good Sombra, which is why you pick Winston instead, and pair D.Va, who's already meta right now, with him. Winston's presence deters players from locking in Genji if they're not super-confident about their matchup and can pull out Doomfist instead, and we're back at the beginning now, aren't we? The supports have their own little cycle going on as well. Ana is the best flex support pick right now, since she offers a ton of utility and long-range healing, being able to set up team fights with her Antinades and temporarily disabling out-of-position enemies with her Sleep Dart. She's also interesting because of her relationship with Doomfist. If an Ana sees a Doom coming, she can sleep him mid-combo or before he even lands a hit, but if she misses that Dart, Doomfist will likely take her out. With Moira gone, Doom won't have to worry about supports Fading out of his combo, and since Baptiste is ultra-diveable right now, Ana is the next-best pick to go with. The best main support according to me is Lucio, since he can engage enemies with his tanks and DPS, as well as peel for his Ana when needed. He's also got Sound Barrier, which has some interesting counterplay with EMP, since both those ults can counter each other if used at the right time. Finally, he's really hard to dive, which makes him highly-survivable in a meta like this. The easiest way to counter him is to either one-shot him, or to hack and dive him, so, *drum roll*, Hackfist can shut him down. It's beautiful how this comp is basically designed to be used against itself, and these mirror matchups are something I wouldn't mind watching.
Now, with this comp in mind, I'm not saying you won't see teams running Tracer, Genji, Pharah even, but I think Hackfist is a less risky comp right now, that's all. If we see those other Dive heroes being played as well though, I'll be really happy myself; who doesn't love seeing a good Tracer annihilating backlines, or a Genji getting Nanoblade 6ks, or a Pharmercy ruling the skies?
Also, even though I've been praising Dive a lot, there's a second comp which I think could be a map-specific Meta Comp as well. This is a variation of the Bunker Comp, and it consists of Orisa-D.Va-Mei-Reaper-Ana-Lucio. I think this could do well on maps with not much high ground, like Lijiang Control Centre, for example, since such maps demand a more brawly playstyle. We already saw something similar to this comp in Stage 4 of OWL last year, and it's still powerful for all the same reasons. Orisa's kit is still very useful, and even though her barrier has been nerfed, she has more staying power than the likes of Winston or Hammond. Halt, Fortify and Supercharger are all still great abilities, and if you pair those with D.Va's defensive utility, one can see the strength of this comp. With Mei and Reaper's short-range dominance, Lucio's speed, and Ana's burst healing and Nanoboost, I could see this being an anti-spam, close-range Speed Bunker Comp. Alright alright, enough about Meta speculation. You guys are here for the predictions, right? So let's get to those.
As usual, I will just share my predictions for Day 1 right now, and add to this post as I see their results and make up my mind about Day 2, so be sure to revisit this post before Sunday's games.
DAY 1
 |
| The Battle of the Hackfist Duos? |
1. Toronto Defiant vs. Florida Mayhem- Mayhem wins 3-2. I think Florida can really feed off of this new meta. They've got a fantastic Winston in Fate, and a solid Hackfist duo in Yaki and BQB, who play an excellent Doomfist and Sombra, respectively. That said, I don't think Toronto will be pushovers in this matchup either. They've got a great Hackfist duo themselves; Surefour's Sombra and Agilities' Doomfist are pretty awesome, and they've got KariV on Ana, which is arguably his best hero, so they'll be in a decent spot too, but considering how inconsistent they've been as of late, I doubt they can beat the Mayhem in this matchup. As expected, the Mayhem ended up winning the series, and all it took for them was a decent level of coordination. The Defiant were surprisingly ineffective at getting value out of flanks, and that itself lost them multiple team fights. Quite a disappointing performance from them.
 |
| This is the first time I've got faith in NiCOgdh |
2. Paris Eternal vs. Houston Outlaws- Eternal wins 3-0. Although I think that the Outlaws have fantastic Hackfist duos in Danteh-Hydration and Danteh-blase, I'm still not very confident in this team. Muma hasn't been doing too well, and as we all know, a solid main tank is necessary to succeed in a Dive Meta. Also, Houston's flex supports have been kind of quiet; they're just there in the field, but don't seem to set up plays or pop off quite as much as the average flex support we've seen so far. On the other side, the Eternal have been on a tear of the competition. They've had players popping off on all roles, and are exhibiting some real cohesion right about now. In this particular meta, I can see them avoiding Hackfist, and playing Tracer-Genji or Tracer-Sombra instead, and this is where SoOn can make a return. We all know how amazing SoOn's Tracer is, and although this means benching Xzi, since NiCOgdh can play Genji and maybe Sombra, I think this squad can pull this particular win off with ease. They can run NoSmite-Hanbin as their tank line, and run any main/flex support combo they choose, and if running Dive doesn't work, they could play the Speed Bunker I mentioned earlier, since NiCOgdh has been playing Mei surprisingly well. Either way though, I think this'll be a sweep in favour of Paris. No way dude...Houston actually rolled the Eternal, and it was as easy as snapping their fingers. I was really surprised that Paris opted into playing Bunker as often as they did, especially with BenBest on main tank. I would've thought that NoSmite, with his history on Winston in Contenders, would've taken the stage and led his team on Dive comps, but with the surprising fielding of BenBest, along with a weak showing from NiCOgdh, who only seems to shine on Mei in mirror matchups, they just crumbled and fell apart. It was nice seeing SoOn back on Tracer, and having him on the lineup was the right move according to me, but the Outlaws seemed really comfortable on Dive, and rolled the Eternal like a batch of pizza dough.
 |
| Dive is probably not for the Justice |
3. Boston Uprising vs. Washington Justice- Justice wins 3-2. These two teams are in similar positions right now, although I think the Uprising haven't been playing cleanly at all, whereas the Justice have had a few moments that showcase their coordination. That aside though, let's talk about their positions in this meta. I think the Uprising will likely play the Sombra-Genji variant of Dive, and that you'll have Axxiom-Mouffin as the tank line. This could certainly work well, but I don't think it'll be enough to beat the Justice. I think Washington's best bet is to go for the Speed Bunker comp, since Stratus and Corey are a great Mei-Reaper duo. They could theoretically play Dive, but then we'd probably see something like Tracer-Doomfist, which is quite situational, unless Corey quickly picks up Sombra and gets comfortable on her. To avoid that risk factor, the Bunker would be ideal for them, and knowing how messy the Uprising are in their execution, they should lose this match unless their dives are on point, and I'm not denying that possibility entirely, but Washington is whom I'm voting for. I think this game was way easier than I thought for Washington because Boston played worse than usual. It's not like the Justice played a godlike Dive or anything like that, but they were the better team, so they got the W.
Let's move on to my predictions for Day 2 now!
DAY 2
 |
| The Eternal may just have gotten into the onlockiest matchup ever |
1. Paris Eternal vs. Philadelphia Fusion- Fusion wins 3-0. I don't think there can be any other conclusion to this matchup. Paris looked really weak against Houston, and knowing how well Philly can play Dive, especially with SADO's Winston at the helm, it's almost a guaranteed win for them. I also can't wait to see Carpe back on Tracer, along with eqo/Ivy's Genji, which I think they can pull out situationally. There's also the possibility of ChipSa being fielded for his Doomfist play, and since the Eternal have been playing so inconsistently, it's possible that he can run them over. NoSmite, Xzi and SoOn had a fantastic game against Philly, surprising them with a new look and a new playstyle that was difficult to deal with. Fielding Xzi was an awesome surprise move, since nobody was expecting him to be subbed in for NiCOgdh due to his comfort zone mainly being around traditional hitscan heroes and snipers. He played mainly Soldier and Hanzo in this game, and since these heroes don't require barriers to be effective, he was still able to slot into his team's Dive comps. SoOn also had a great game as Tracer, which just added to the pressure on Philly's backline. I think Paris is shaping up to be quite a formidable team, and I certainly won't undersell them from now on. Also, this match ended with a 3-2 score, keeping up with Philly tradition.
 |
| There won't even be a trace of the Justice left when New York are done with them |
2. New York Excelsior vs. Washington Justice- Excelsior wins 3-0. I think the outcome of this match is already set in stone as well, since the NYXL are pioneers of Dive. Mano is a fantastic Winston, and he's also got 4 capable Dive DPS players by his side. Libero and WhoRU can play Doomfist and Genji, and Saebyeolbe can play Tracer and Sombra; heck, you could even field Nenne for his Tracer play, it would still work according to me. Also, we've been seeing a ton of Zenyatta this weekend, and JJoNaK is one of the best Zens in the business, so expect him to pop off hard during this match and bump up his stonks once again! New York just had to win this game. I had no doubt about it. Their dives were great as usual, and yeah, they forced the Justice to play outside of their comfort zone, which was a big plus in my opinion. I think Washington would've had more success if they'd played Bunker comps with Mei-Reaper or Mei-Hanzo, but they still tried their best in front of their home crowd and seized a map. The final score was 3-1 in favour of the NYXL.
 |
| Boston better watch out, because the Reign are on guard! |
3. Boston Uprising vs. Atlanta Reign- Reign wins 3-0. Looks like it's going to be a sweepy Sunday in Washington. The Atlanta Reign seem to be in a good position in this meta because of the diversity in their roster. I think it's very likely that we see Pokpo-Hawk as the tank line once again, along with Erster and either Edison/SharP on DPS. These 3 damage dealers are all talented flankers, and can easily dominate the Uprising in this particular meta. It'll be interesting to see whether Reign continues running Masaa and Dogman as their support line, or if they field Fire and Kodak to flex on Boston a little, but either way, it should be an easy win for them. This was EZ Clap for the Atlanta Reign. Also, welcome to the Overwatch League, Edison.
Week 5 has ended with me getting 4/6 winners right, and 1/6 scores right, which is a 66.67% winner accuracy, and a 16.67% score accuracy. That is not good, and I'll have to work harder on determining teams' power levels based on Hero Pools, so hard luck for me this time, but I'm sure I'll hit a few more nails on the head in Week 6, which will be hosted by the Florida Mayhem.
If you guys wish to show your support for my predictions posts, do subscribe to this blog so that you get notified whenever I post new articles. Thanks again for reading, and have a great work week.
Comments
Post a Comment